Property Crime Trends and Case Outcomes in Vermont

A new analysis of Vermont property crime data highlights how these cases are investigated and resolved, revealing differences in clearance rates, arrests, and case outcomes across offense types and counties. 

Users can explore the data further by accessing the full interactive reports at the following links:

Property Crimes and Clearance Rates

Case Processing and Sentencing Outcomes

Criminal History Profiles of Property Crime Defendants

Property crimes—including theft, burglary, fraud, and motor vehicle break-ins—are among the most frequently reported offenses to law enforcement. The analysis found that 15–21% of incidents were cleared by arrest, slightly higher than the national average (~13%). These cases are often difficult to investigate because they are discovered after the fact and may lack witnesses or clear evidence.

Key findings:

• Clearance varies by offense: Higher for possession of stolen property, embezzlement, robbery, and arson; lower for motor vehicle thefts, wire fraud, and computer crimes.
• Case outcomes vary: Conviction rates ranged widely, from ~35.8% in Chittenden to ~85% in Essex County.
• Factors tied to arrest: More complex cases (multiple offenses, victims, or property) and more recent incidents were more likely to result in arrest.
• About 15% of the study cohort had no prior Vermont record, while most had prior involvement.
• Many individuals in the cohort entered the system young; individuals in their 30s were overrepresented.
• Men made up most cases, though women were more common in retail theft cases.
• Black defendants were disproportionately represented relative to the state population.

Overall, the findings highlight how property crime outcomes vary by offense type, location, and individual background, underscoring the complexity of these cases and the need for targeted policy responses.